Climate Change Fuels Return and Displacement Crisis in Afghanistan, Study Finds

KABUL — A new research brief from Climate-Diplomacy highlights how climate change is reshaping displacement patterns in Afghanistan, making it harder for families to return home and stay there. The study, published on Thursday, warns that environmental shocks are compounding an already fragile humanitarian situation.

Climate Shocks Driving Displacement

Afghanistan is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. The research brief notes that recurrent droughts, flash floods, and extreme weather events are forcing people to leave their homes. These climate impacts are hitting rural communities the hardest, where livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture.

Since 2020, prolonged drought has devastated crops and killed livestock, pushing thousands of families into urban centres or across borders. The brief states that climate change is not just a backdrop — it is a direct cause of displacement in many provinces.

Barriers to Return

For Afghans who fled conflict or economic hardship, returning home has become increasingly difficult. The research points out that many returnees find their land degraded, water sources dry, and local economies destroyed by climate shocks. This creates a cycle of displacement where people leave, return, and then are forced to leave again.

Water scarcity is a particular concern. The brief highlights that competition for dwindling water resources is fuelling local tensions. Returnees often lack the means to dig wells or irrigate fields, leaving them dependent on aid that is already stretched thin.

Vulnerable Groups Most Affected

Women and children bear the brunt of these climate-displacement dynamics. The research notes that female-headed households face additional hurdles in accessing land or relief. Children are at higher risk of malnutrition and drop out of school as families move in search of water or work.

The brief also points out that minority communities in arid regions are disproportionately affected. They have fewer resources to adapt and are often left out of relief planning.

Policy Gaps and Recommendations

The research brief criticises current humanitarian and return policies for failing to account for climate risks. It argues that programmes focused solely on shelter or food aid miss the root cause: environmental degradation that makes areas uninhabitable.

Climate-Diplomacy recommends that the international community and Afghan authorities integrate climate adaptation into all return and resettlement plans. This includes investing in water management, drought-resistant crops, and early warning systems. Without such steps, the brief warns, displacement will continue to rise.

What Comes Next

The findings come as Afghanistan faces another uncertain winter. Aid agencies are already reporting that millions lack enough food. The research brief makes clear that climate change is not a future threat — it is a present crisis. Whether policymakers act on these recommendations will determine if displaced Afghans can rebuild their lives or remain trapped in a cycle of movement and loss.