Renewed Iran-US hostilities halve Hormuz traffic, tanker movement nearly stops

Traffic halves as tensions spike

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by nearly 50% in the past week, with tanker movement grinding to a near halt. The sharp drop follows a series of renewed attacks between Iran and the United States, turning the world’s most critical oil chokepoint into a no-go zone for commercial shipping.

Industry tracking data shows that the number of tankers transiting the strait has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade. The strait, which handles roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, is now seeing only a trickle of vessels, most of which are under naval escort.

Escalation revives fears of a blockade

The latest attacks mark a dramatic escalation in the long-running shadow war between Tehran and Washington. US officials have not confirmed the details of the strikes, but regional sources describe a pattern of tit-for-tat operations targeting naval assets and oil infrastructure.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in the past, but this time the rhetoric has been matched with action. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has deployed fast-attack boats and sea mines, forcing commercial operators to suspend sailings until the security situation clears.

“This is the most dangerous the strait has been since the Tanker War in the 1980s,” said a Gulf-based maritime security analyst. “Every day the situation remains volatile, the risk of a major oil spill or a catastrophic collision rises.”

Global oil markets on edge

Oil prices have already spiked by over 12% in the past 48 hours, with Brent crude crossing the $95 per barrel mark. Trading floors in London, Singapore and New York are bracing for further volatility if the strait remains disrupted.

The International Energy Agency has called for calm, urging all parties to ensure freedom of navigation. But diplomatic efforts have so far failed to de-escalate the situation. A scheduled meeting between US and Iranian envoys in Oman was cancelled at the last minute, sources say.

Past agreements prove fragile

This is not the first time the Hormuz chokepoint has been threatened. A memorandum of understanding signed earlier this year between Gulf states and Iran promised “safe passage” for commercial vessels. That agreement, described by some experts as fatally ambiguous, has now unravelled completely.

Al Jazeera reported last week that the MoU’s wording allowed each side to interpret its commitments differently, leaving the door open for the current crisis. “It was a piece of paper that papered over deep mistrust,” a Gulf diplomat told the outlet. “It was never going to survive the first real test.”

What happens next

Naval forces from the US Fifth Fleet and allied nations are now escorting a limited number of tankers through the strait. But the volume of traffic remains far below normal, and insurers have tripled premiums for vessels entering the Gulf.

With no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, the immediate outlook is grim. Traders and governments alike are watching for any sign of a ceasefire — or the next strike.