Oil tankers face worst-case scenario in Hormuz as Iran escalates ship attacks, says risk CEO

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway critical to global oil supplies, has become a flashpoint. Iran has stepped up attacks on commercial ships, prompting a maritime risk chief to describe conditions as a 'worst case scenario' for oil tankers transiting the chokepoint.

The warning comes amid a flurry of reports from multiple outlets. The British military has confirmed an attack on a tanker near Oman, the latest in a series of incidents that have rattled the shipping industry.

India tells firms to pull back sailors

India's Directorate General of Shipping (DGMA) has issued an urgent advisory. It tells shipping companies to avoid deploying Indian sailors on vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

The directive, reported by The Hindu and The Times of India, is a preemptive move to protect the thousands of Indian seafarers employed worldwide. India has one of the largest pools of merchant navy personnel, making them vulnerable in any regional conflict.

Industry sources say the advisory carries significant weight. Companies ignoring it could face regulatory action or insurance complications, though officials have not yet confirmed specific penalties.

A choke point under pressure

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through it daily. Any sustained disruption here would ripple through global energy markets.

The maritime risk CEO, whose firm tracks threats to shipping, did not mince words. He called the current situation a 'worst case scenario' for oil tankers. Iranian attacks are no longer isolated. They appear coordinated and increasingly brazen, according to briefings from security analysts.

One tanker was struck close to Omani waters, the British military report noted. Details of the damage and crew status are still emerging.

What this means for global oil

Oil prices have already reacted. Benchmark crude futures edged higher in Asian trade on Friday. Traders are pricing in a risk premium for any barrel that must cross the strait.

Shipping insurance premiums for vessels in the region have spiked. Some carriers are now rerouting around the Arabian Peninsula, adding days and costs to voyages. The alternative—the Bab el-Mandeb strait—is itself under threat from Houthi attacks.

The situation puts India in a difficult spot. New Delhi depends on Gulf oil for a large chunk of its energy needs. While the DGMA advisory protects sailors, it does nothing to secure energy supply lines.

Iran has not commented on the latest tanker attack. Analysts believe Tehran is using maritime harassment as leverage in nuclear talks with world powers. The strategy carries obvious risks: a miscalculation could draw in the US Navy or trigger a broader conflict.

For now, the message from India is clear: keep Indian sailors out of harm's way. The 'worst case scenario' may not have fully arrived, but the warning signs are unmistakable.

What to watch next: whether the US or its allies respond with naval escorts or strikes, and if other nations follow India's lead in restricting crew deployments through the strait.