Xi likely to attend BRICS summit in India, first visit since Galwan clash

New Delhi is gearing up for a significant diplomatic moment as indications emerge that Chinese President Xi Jinping could attend the BRICS summit scheduled in India later this year. If confirmed, this would mark his first visit to the country since the deadly Galwan Valley clash in 2020, a confrontation that froze bilateral ties and triggered a prolonged military standoff along the Line of Actual Control.

Preparations intensifying in the capital

Official sources indicate that Indian authorities are moving ahead with logistical arrangements for the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi, with September being the tentative window. The summit is expected to bring together leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, though the final guest list remains fluid.

India has formally invited Russia to participate, and President Vladimir Putin's attendance is seen as likely. However, the focus has increasingly shifted to Xi, whose presence would carry deep symbolic weight given the frosty state of Sino-Indian relations over the past six years.

China's cautious stance

Beijing has publicly expressed support for India hosting a 'successful' summit, a phrase that diplomats note is carefully chosen. Yet, when pressed on whether Xi would personally attend, Chinese officials have remained evasive, offering no direct confirmation or denial.

This ambiguity has fuelled speculation in diplomatic circles. Some analysts suggest that China is keeping its options open, possibly linking the visit to ongoing border negotiations or broader geopolitical calculations. Others point to the routine nature of such diplomatic hedging, noting that leaders often confirm participation closer to the event date.

Bilateral ties at a crossroads

The Galwan clash in June 2020, which resulted in casualties on both sides, remains a raw wound in the bilateral relationship. Since then, India and China have held multiple rounds of military and diplomatic talks to de-escalate tensions along the border, with partial disengagement achieved in several friction points.

A Xi visit would not automatically signal a thaw, but it would provide a platform for direct dialogue at the highest level. The BRICS summit, originally conceived as a forum for emerging economies, could serve as a neutral setting for sideline meetings between leaders who have not shared a table in years.

What a visit could mean

Beyond symbolism, an Xi visit would have practical implications. It could revive discussions on trade, investment, and regional connectivity, areas that have stagnated amid political mistrust. Business communities on both sides have quietly pushed for more predictable engagement, and a summit meeting could provide a nudge in that direction.

However, experts caution against reading too much into attendance alone. The summit's agenda is yet to be finalised, and the broader geopolitical environment, including China's relations with the West and Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine, will shape the tone of discussions.

Awaiting confirmation

For now, the Indian government is proceeding with preparations, mindful that the final guest list remains uncertain. Official confirmation from Beijing is expected closer to the event, possibly after the current round of border talks concludes.

The coming weeks will be critical. If Xi confirms, it would be a rare moment of high-level engagement between the two Asian giants. If he does not, the summit will still proceed, but the optics would be markedly different.