India-Bangladesh ties strain after Hasina's Delhi press address

India-Bangladesh relations have plunged to a fresh low following a press conference by exiled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi, where she vowed to return to Dhaka despite the risk of arrest. The event, held on Thursday, has drawn sharp reactions from both sides, with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) distancing itself from her remarks.

MEA's cautious distancing

The MEA issued a brief statement clarifying that the Indian government does not endorse comments made at the press meet. Officials stressed that the event was organised by a private group and did not reflect official policy. This careful wording appears designed to prevent further deterioration in bilateral ties, which have been strained since Hasina's ouster two years ago.

Neither the MEA nor the organisers have revealed the venue or the list of attendees, though reports suggest several exiled Bangladeshi politicians were present. The statement, however, stopped short of criticising Hasina directly, leaving room for diplomatic manoeuvre.

Hasina's defiant message

Addressing reporters, Hasina struck a defiant tone, saying, "I may be arrested. I may be sent to prison… but fear can't decide my duty to the people." She reiterated her commitment to returning to Bangladesh, though she did not provide a timeline. Her remarks were met with applause from supporters in the room, but they are likely to inflame tensions in Dhaka, which has repeatedly accused India of harbouring anti-government elements.

The former prime minister also called for a united opposition against the current regime, urging rival parties to set aside differences. Political analysts note that her speech signals a more active role from exile, a shift from her earlier low-profile presence in India.

Political ripple effects

The press conference has already sparked reactions within Bangladesh's political circles. In an unexpected development, a lawmaker from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has floated the idea of a merger with Hasina's Awami League, a proposal that would have been unthinkable during her tenure. While the BNP leadership has not officially commented, the suggestion underscores the fluidity of the current political landscape.

Observers say the merger proposal, though unlikely to materialise soon, reflects a growing sense of urgency among opposition figures to counter the ruling establishment. However, deep historical rivalries between the two parties remain a formidable barrier.

A relationship in reset

Relations between India and Bangladesh, once described as a "golden era" under Hasina's rule, have seen a marked shift over the past two years. The current government in Dhaka has pursued a more independent foreign policy, while Delhi has sought to maintain influence without alienating the new leadership. Thursday's events have added another layer of complexity to this uneasy reset.

Diplomatic channels remain open, but officials in both capitals are bracing for further volatility. The MEA's statement, though brief, was carefully calibrated to avoid a complete rupture, indicating that neither side is willing to burn bridges entirely.

What to watch next

All eyes are now on Dhaka's response, which could range from a formal protest to stronger rhetoric against India. Hasina's next move—whether she addresses another rally or attempts to travel closer to the border—will also be closely monitored. The coming weeks are likely to test the resilience of a relationship that has weathered many storms but now faces its most uncertain phase yet.