Indian student visas to US down 62% in 2025; China sees 34% drop

The number of student visas issued to Indian nationals by the United States plunged by 62% in 2025, a steep fall that dwarfs the 34% drop recorded for Chinese students. The figures, drawn from US government data and reported by The Indian Express, mark one of the sharpest yearly contractions in recent memory for the world's two largest sources of international students.

The decline comes amid a broader tightening of US immigration policy and a growing debate over programmes like Optional Practical Training (OPT), which allows foreign graduates to work in the US for up to three years after completing their degrees. A new report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), a Washington-based think tank, has now called for the outright scrapping of the OPT programme, a move that could reshape the calculus for thousands of Indian students.

Why India's slide is steeper

India's 62% drop is nearly double China's, a divergence that analysts attribute to several factors. US consular processing delays, higher visa fees, and a perception of a less welcoming environment have all played a role. But the numbers also reflect a structural shift: Indian students, who had overtaken the Chinese as the largest group of international enrollees in recent years, are now facing headwinds that are unique to their demographic.

Many Indian students rely heavily on STEM fields and the OPT pathway to gain work experience in the US. The CIS report argues that OPT undercuts American workers by flooding the job market with foreign labour, a claim that has gained traction among some policymakers. For Indian families, the prospect of spending lakhs of rupees on tuition only to face uncertain work prospects is a growing deterrent.

Chinese students, by contrast, have been slower to pivot. Despite geopolitical tensions, many still view US universities as a golden ticket, and their decline is more closely tied to visa processing bottlenecks than to policy anxiety, experts suggest.

The OPT debate heats up

The CIS report, released this week, is unlikely to be the final word. It recommends not just a freeze on new OPT permits but also a phase-out of existing ones, arguing that the programme has outlived its purpose. Critics, however, point out that international students contribute significantly to US research and innovation, and that Indian students in particular fill critical gaps in fields like engineering and computer science.

Universities across the US have already begun to feel the pinch. Enrolment numbers from major institutions show a marked dip in Indian admissions for the 2025-26 academic year, and several campuses have reported empty seats in graduate programmes that were once oversubscribed. The economic impact is not trivial: international students contribute over $30 billion annually to the US economy, and India accounts for a growing share of that spending.

For Indian students, the immediate effect is practical. Many who had planned to apply for the upcoming cycle are now weighing alternatives like Canada, Australia, and the UK, which have rolled out more predictable post-study work rules. Some are also looking closer to home, with Indian institutions and online programmes gaining appeal.

What the numbers mean

The 62% figure is stark, but it is not uniform across all visa categories. While the overall student visa count has fallen, certain high-demand STEM programmes have seen less severe declines, suggesting that the most determined applicants are still finding a way. Yet the broader trend is unmistakable: the US is becoming a less obvious choice for Indian students, and the policy environment is doing little to reverse that.

Officials have not yet confirmed whether the decline is a one-off correction or the start of a longer slide. The US State Department has not commented on the CIS report, and the White House has remained silent on the OPT question. For now, students and universities are left to navigate a landscape of uncertainty.

What to watch

All eyes are now on the US Congress, where a bill to restrict OPT has been introduced but not yet voted on. If it gains traction, the impact on Indian student numbers could deepen further. For the Biden administration, the challenge is to balance immigration hawks with the demands of a knowledge economy that relies on global talent. The coming months will reveal whether the 62% drop is an anomaly or a new normal.