Mecca defence pact: Which nations could join Turkiye-Saudi-Pakistan bloc?

The announcement of a defence pact between Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan has sent ripples through regional geopolitics. Described by Islamabad as “purely defensive” and open to others, the agreement has raised a pressing question: who might join next?

The pact, reportedly discussed in the context of a looming confrontation with Iran, marks a notable convergence of three Muslim military heavyweights. But its architects have left the door ajar, inviting other nations to participate. This openness has sparked intense speculation across chanceries from Doha to Jakarta.

A pact born of shared concerns

The timing of the agreement is significant. With tensions around Iran escalating, the three nations have chosen to formalise a security framework that extends beyond mere symbolism. Saudi Arabia brings financial heft and strategic depth in the Gulf, Turkiye contributes a robust defence industry and NATO experience, while Pakistan offers a large, battle-tested army and nuclear capability.

For Islamabad, the pact serves multiple purposes. It reinforces its historical ties with Riyadh while deepening a growing strategic relationship with Ankara. Officials in Pakistan have been quick to stress the defensive nature of the arrangement, seeking to allay fears that it could provoke further instability in an already volatile region.

Potential candidates for expansion

Analysts point to several nations that could logically align with the bloc. Azerbaijan, a close partner of Turkiye with its own grievances against Iran, stands out as a likely candidate. Baku has deepened military cooperation with Ankara in recent years, and its strategic location on the Caspian Sea adds value.

Malaysia and Indonesia, both Muslim-majority nations with significant defence modernisation programmes, could also be approached. Their inclusion would extend the pact's reach into Southeast Asia, though distance and differing foreign policy priorities may temper enthusiasm.

Closer to home, Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar are natural considerations. The UAE has historically maintained strong defence ties with Pakistan, while Qatar hosts a major Turkish military base. Yet their rivalries and independent security arrangements could complicate swift accession.

India and the Operation Sindoor question

The pact inevitably draws attention to India. With Pakistan at the core of the alliance, New Delhi is watching developments closely. The reference to another “Operation Sindoor”—a hypothetical military campaign—has been raised in Indian media, but officials have not commented on any specific contingency.

India’s own defence relationships with Turkiye and Saudi Arabia remain functional, if not warm. The pact could, however, complicate New Delhi’s strategic calculus, particularly if it expands to include nations like Azerbaijan, which has territorial disputes with India's partner Armenia.

For now, the pact remains a trilateral framework, but its stated openness is a signal. The coming months will reveal whether it becomes a broader Islamic military coalition or remains a focused arrangement.

What to watch next

Diplomatic observers will track whether any formal invitations are issued in the coming weeks. The response from Tehran will also be telling, as will the stance of other Gulf monarchies. The pact’s future hinges on how its members balance expansion with cohesion.