Netanyahu rejects Trump Gaza plan, risking endless conflict

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally rejected the United States' 15-point Gaza plan, vowing that Israeli forces will not withdraw until Hamas is completely disarmed. The move, described by some analysts as a 'coup' against the proposal, has raised fears of an endless war in the enclave.

The plan, brokered by the Trump administration, had been seen as a potential pathway to de-escalation. But Netanyahu's insistence on disarmament as a precondition has created a deadlock that diplomats warn could unravel months of painstaking negotiation.

A calculated gamble

Netanyahu's decision to defy Washington is not impulsive, according to regional experts. He appears to have calculated that upsetting President Donald Trump is his least-bad option, given the domestic political pressures he faces in Israel.

His coalition government depends on far-right parties that have threatened to collapse the administration if he makes concessions on Gaza. By taking a hard line, Netanyahu is signalling to his base that he will not compromise on security, even at the cost of alienating Israel's most important ally.

But the gamble is fraught. The US plan had offered a framework for Israeli withdrawal and a broader regional normalisation, and its rejection could leave Israel diplomatically isolated.

The core dispute: disarmament versus withdrawal

The central sticking point is sequencing. The US plan reportedly envisioned a phased Israeli pullout alongside a gradual disarmament process, with international oversight. Netanyahu, however, has insisted that Hamas must lay down its weapons before any significant withdrawal begins.

Hamas, for its part, has rejected any precondition that would effectively disarm it before a full Israeli exit. This 'chicken-and-egg' dynamic has paralysed negotiations, and each side's maximalist position makes a compromise increasingly unlikely.

As one analyst put it, the debate has boiled down to a simple question: "Disarm first or withdraw first?" The inability to answer that question has turned the plan into a potential casualty of its own ambition.

Risk of endless war

The rejection has deepened concerns that the conflict could grind on indefinitely. Without a credible political horizon, observers argue, the conditions that fuel Hamas's resilience will persist, and Israel's military gains will prove ephemeral.

Israeli operations in Gaza have already exacted a heavy toll, with thousands of casualties and widespread destruction. Yet the military objective of eliminating Hamas remains unrealised, and the group continues to operate in parts of the enclave.

If Netanyahu holds his line, the war could stretch into a new phase of attrition, marked by periodic flare-ups and no clear end state. The humanitarian situation is likely to worsen, and regional actors may be drawn deeper into the conflict.

What's next

Washington has not yet publicly responded to Netanyahu's rejection, but officials are believed to be weighing options that range from renewed pressure to a quiet shelving of the plan. The coming weeks will reveal whether the US can coax Israel back to the table or whether the plan is effectively dead.

For now, the prospects appear bleak. Netanyahu's calculation may buy him political time in Israel, but it does little to resolve the fundamental questions that have driven the war. The world watches as the plan's fate—and the future of Gaza—hang in the balance.